Monthly Crude Steel Production Trend (2008)

Monthly crude steel prodn trend (2008)(mt)

country	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Adjustmt	Total
China	40.6	38.9	44.9	44.7	46.0	46.9	44.9	42.6	39.6	35.9	35.2	39.0	2.9	502.0
Japan	10.3	9.8	10.8	10.1	10.5	10.4	10.2	10.2	10.1	10.1	8.8	7.5	0.0	118.7
United States	8.7	8.2	8.6	8.4	8.7	8.4	8.5	8.7	7.8	6.8	4.7	4.1	0.0	91.5
Russia	6.5	6.0	6.7	6.1	6.3	6.3	6.2	6.3	6.1	4.5	3.7	3.3	0.5	68.5
India	4.8	4.6	4.9	4.2	4.3	4.3	4.5	4.7	4.6	4.8	4.7	4.5	0.0	55.1
South Korea	4.6	4.2	4.4	4.5	4.8	4.7	4.8	4.7	4.6	4.6	3.9	3.7	0.1	53.5
Others	37.5	35.9	39.4	38.1	39.3	38.2	37.5	35.4	35.1	32.6	26.8	22.3	22.3	440.4
Total	112.9	107.7	119.6	116.1	120.0	119.2	116.6	112.6	107.9	99.3	87.8	84.4	25.7	1329.7

Growth in monthly crude steel prodn trend (2008)(%)

country	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
China		-4.1	15.4	-0.4	3.0	2.0	-4.4	-5.2	-6.9	-9.4	-2.0	10.9
Japan		-4.3	9.8	-5.9	4.0	-1.7	-1.7	-0.2	-0.8	0.1	-12.7	-15.1
United States		-5.1	4.7	-2.6	4.3	-4.1	1.7	1.8	-9.5	-13.8	-30.5	-13.7
Russia		-6.9	11.0	-8.9	3.4	-0.9	-1.6	3.0	-3.8	-26.0	-17.3	-11.3
India		-3.4	5.0	-12.9	2.1	0.0	4.8	4.6	-2.4	3.8	-3.2	-3.2
South Korea		-10.0	5.1	2.9	6.5	-2.9	3.4	-3.3	-2.5	0.6	-14.6	-5.9
Others		-4.2	9.6	-3.3	3.1	-2.6	-1.9	-5.5	-1.0	-7.1	-17.8	-16.7
Total		-4.6	11.1	-2.9	3.3	-0.7	-2.1	-3.5	-4.2	-8.0	-11.5	-3.9

Extent of prodn being below the monthly avg prodn

country	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Average prodn
China	-1.0	-2.7	3.3	3.1	4.4	5.3	3.3	1.0	-2.0	-5.7	-6.4	-2.6	41.6
Japan	0.4	-0.1	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	-1.1	-2.4	9.9
United States	1.0	0.6	1.0	0.8	1.1	0.7	0.9	1.0	0.2	-0.9	-2.9	-3.6	7.6
Russia	0.8	0.4	1.0	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.7	0.4	-1.2	-1.9	-2.4	5.7
India	0.2	0.0	0.3	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1	4.6
South Korea	0.2	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1	-0.5	-0.8	4.5
Others	2.7	1.1	4.5	3.2	4.4	3.4	2.7	0.6	0.3	-2.3	-8.0	-12.5	34.8
Total	4.2	-1.0	10.9	7.5	11.3	10.5	8.0	3.9	-0.7	-9.4	-20.9	-24.3	108.7

· Global crude steel production has declined drastically in the last qtr of 2008, as indicated by m-o-m negative decline rates. As the industry is cyclical, y-o-y comparisons (say, dec08 over dec07) would be more meaningful.

· However, the extent of deviation in production from the average clearly indicates that oct, nov and dec 2008 were the months where production just nosedived as compared to the rest of the year.

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